Thursday, February 23, 2012

2. Easy-peasy

Offense is easier than most people realize.

Imagine this scenario: I put your O team on the line and offer $13,000 dollars* if you can advance the disc 70 yards against a comparable defense. What’s your strategy? Would you leave $13k to chance and throw up a jump-ball to your best receiver? Or, would you throw 15 high percentage passes until you scored?

Obviously you go for the most probable play, especially from the rationality of your armchair. But, most often this logic is not manifested in crucial games.

Few people would claim that jump-balls and fingertip layouts are the best method for scoring. But, players and fans love to see Beau sky a pile of defenders for the win.

The keys to a solid offense are intangible and few spectators will ever discern a wise decision that saves possession and wins the point. The human mind is very good at observing material events, but counterfactual thinking does not come naturally. It’s very difficult to recognize what DOESN’T happen: restraint—the tempting throw a player chooses not to take.



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*$13,000 dollars is not an entirely baseless figure. From my recollection, Club Nationals cost me about $500 (in 2006, on a college budget). From a team standpoint, Nationals has a value of at least $13k (500x~27). Thus, in the hypothetical Game-to-go, double-game-point, each team should be willing to pay $13k to win it. And, a poor throw could be that costly.








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